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Climate Change UK Weather Atlantic Ocean Reports Jet Stream Air Quality

February saw a continuation of the wet conditions that dominated January, with unsettled weather, persistent rain and temperatures around average. In the first half of the month, a south-shifted and stronger than usual jet stream funnelled frontal systems towards the UK, and a block of cold air over Scandinavia prevented them from progressing eastwards. The blocking air shifted in the second half of the month, allowing a more typical westerly flow over the UK, but the weather remained unsettled. Not all areas saw extensive rainfall, however, with northwest Scotland particularly dry due to a pronounced rain-shadow effect. Temperatures were around average to slightly below average at times, but increased in the last week of the month, reaching 18.7°C in Kew Gardens (London) on the 25th. However, the wet conditions remained for the entirety of the month. It was a wet month for many, with some counties including Angus, Dorset and Worcestershire seeing more than the full month’s average rainfall within the first 14 days of the month. By the end of the month, the UK had provisionally recorded 123% of the long-term average February rainfall and England had seen 170% of the average, although neither broke any records.

 

Read the full UK Weather and Climate Summary for February 2026


February 2026 In February 2026, the global surface temperature was 1.18°C (2.12°F) above the 20th-century average, ranking as the fifth-warmest February in the 177-year record. The 10 warmest Februarys on record have all occurred since 2016. This month also marked the 47th-consecutive February with an above-average temperatures. The global ocean surface had its second-warmest February on record at 0.87°C (1.57°F) above average. This value fell 0.16°C (0.29°F) shy of the record set in 2024, while edging out 2025—now the third-warmest February on record—by just 0.01°C (0.02°F). Meanwhile, the global land-only temperature averaged 1.86°C (3.35°F) above average, ranking as the sixth-warmest in the record.


February 2026 was the United Kingdom's ninth-warmest February on record. Much of the nation experienced warmer-than-average conditions during the month. According to the Met Office, England had its fourth-warmest February and Wales its sixth warmest.


The three-month period from December 2025–February 2026 was defined by widespread above-average temperatures across much of the globe. The global surface temperature for this period was 1.12°C (2.02°F) above the 20th-century average, making it the fifth-warmest such period since records began in 1850. Notably, the 10 warmest December–February seasons on record have all occurred since 2016. The January–February global surface temperature was 1.15°C (2.07°F) above average, the fifth-warmest such period in the 177-year record. The 10 warmest such period have all occurred since 2016, a list that includes the last five consecutive years. During the first two months of the year, above-average temperatures dominated much of the global surfaces. The most significant positive temperature departures, +2.0°C (+3.6°F) or higher, were concentrated across large portions of the Arctic, Greenland, the contiguous U.S. extending into southern Canada, northern Africa, southern and eastern Asia, and parts of Antarctica.


Global Climate Report for February 2026



 








UK Climate Forecast  38 Union Street  Grantham  Lincolnshire  NG31 6NZ  


Ocean temperatures are off the charts right now and scientists are alarmed

One major driver of the heat is believed to be an approaching – and potentially strong – El Niño, a natural climate fluctuation associated with warming in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, which has a global heating effect.

State of the Global Climate 2024 published by WMO in Geneva in 2025  

The goal of climate analysis is to better understand the Earth’s past and present climate, and to predict future climate response to changes in natural and human-induced factors, such as the Sun, greenhouse gases (e.g., water vapour, carbon dioxide and methane), and aerosols (e.g., from dust storms, pollution, fires, sea spray or volcanic eruptions). Climate analysis studies are routinely carried out using a mix of data from diverse sources including historical climate data, current and past satellite instruments, field campaigns, and outputs from regional and global numerical models. A climatic data element is a measured parameter which helps to specify the climate of a specific location or region, such as precipitation, temperature, wind speed and humidity.




State of the UK Climate Report 2024 published on the 14 July 2025


Climate Change Committee Progress in adapting to climate change: 2025 report to Parliament

Exceptional rainfall and flooding in parts of Europe and north Africa in February

Published on the 13 March 2026

February 2026 saw exceptionally wet conditions in western and southern Europe and northern Africa, as reported in the latest Climate Bulletin by the Copernicus Climate Change Service Prolonged heavy rainfall triggered severe flooding and landslides in France,1 Spain, Portugal and Morocco,2 leading to loss of life and livelihoods alongside widespread damage.The extreme events of February 2026 highlight the growing impacts of climate change and the pressing need for global action. With global temperatures reaching 1.49°C above pre-industrial levels – the fifth-warmest February on record – Europe experienced stark temperature contrasts. Exceptional atmospheric rivers - narrow bands of very moist air – brought record rainfall and widespread flooding to western and southern Europe, while Arctic sea ice extent ranked as the third-lowest for the month. February 2026 was the fifth-warmest February on record. With a global average surface air temperature of 13.26°C, it was 1.49°C warmer than the estimated 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline. It was also the third-warmest February on record for the southern hemisphere.



Copernicus Climate Bulletin. Published on the 5 November 2025

When COP delegates adopted the Paris accord ten years ago, the app estimated that the global temperature was already 0.98°C above the pre-industrial average and would breach the 1.5°C threshold in 2045. Today, the same tool estimates that we have reached a global average of 1.25°C and will be at 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels in May 2029. This is five years earlier than when we published the first version of this article in 2023. To put it another way, in 2015 our projected deadline for reaching 1.5°C was 27 years away. Now, the application estimates that the threshold is only 4 years away – 23 years closer. This striking change suggests that global warming has accelerated quickly in recent years. It is important to note, however, that the application is based on a simple linear extrapolation, which cannot distinguish between acceleration due to increased greenhouse gases and natural climate variability.

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Global Climate Highlights 2025