Monitoring the UK climate and forecasting its meteorological changes with analysis
UK Climate Forecasting and Analysis
Climate Forecast Stormy Atlantic Ocean UK Weather Analysis and Reports Climate & Air Quality Jet Stream
April saw an unsettled start, with spells of below average temperatures and rain showers for much of the country. The fourth named storm of the season, Storm Dave, arrived on the 4th/5th and brought heavy rainfall to Scotland and Northern Ireland and strong winds across the UK. Showers and frontal systems followed, with gusty winds in some areas. Mid-month saw showers, occasionally heavy and sometimes with hail or snow at higher elevations, and some isolated thunderstorms. However, the second half of the month was dominated by high pressure conditions, resulting in clear skies, mild temperatures and very little rainfall. All four nations recorded mean temperatures above average, with England and Wales both recording their sixth warmest Aprils on record. The provisional mean temperature for the UK was 9.0°C, 1.1°C above the long-term average and the seventh warmest April on record. All four nations recorded mean temperatures above average, with England and Wales both recording their sixth warmest Aprils on record.
Read the full UK Weather and Climate Summary for April 2026
The global surface temperature for April 2026 was 1.12°C above average, ranking as the fourth-warmest April since global records began in 1850. Notably, all 10 of the warmest Aprils in the 1850–2026 record have occurred since 2016. This month also marked the 50th-consecutive April with a global temperature departure above the 20th-century average; the most recent below-average April occurred in 1976. April 2026 was characterized by widespread warmth, driven largely by near-record heat across the global oceans. The ocean surface temperature for April 2026 was the second warmest since records began in 1850, at 0.95°C above-average. This value fell just 0.05°C short of the record set in April 2024. Across the land, notable temperature departures of at least +2.0°C occurred across Antarctica, the southern and eastern contiguous U.S., western Europe and portions Asia and southwestern Australia. Global land April surface temperature ranked as the seventh-highest on record, at 1.48°C above average. Overall, 7.4% of the Earth's surface set a new record-high temperature—the second-largest April footprint on record—with new record-high temperatures mainly present across the Pacific, Atlantic and southern Indian Oceans and alongside localized land areas in the contiguous U.S., Europe, Asia, Africa, and Antarctica. The January–April global surface temperature was 1.15°C above average and the fifth-highest in the 177-year record. The 10 warmest such periods have all occurred since 2016.
According to NCEI's statistical analysis, it is almost certain that 2026 will rank among the 10 warmest years on record, and very likely that it will place in the top five.
Read the full April 2026 Global Climate Report
- UN Climate Reports
- NOAA Global Annual 2025 Climate Report
- IPCC AR6 Climate Change Report
- IPCC AR6 Synthesis Climate Change 2023
- NOAA Assessing global climate in April 2026
UK Climate Forecast 38 Union Street Grantham Lincolnshire NG31 6NZ
Ocean temperatures are off the charts right now and scientists are alarmed
One major driver of the heat is believed to be an approaching – and potentially strong – El Niño, a natural climate fluctuation associated with warming in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, which has a global heating effect.
State of the Global Climate 2024 published by WMO in Geneva in 2025
The goal of climate analysis is to better understand the Earth’s past and present climate, and to predict future climate response to changes in natural and human-induced factors, such as the Sun, greenhouse gases (e.g., water vapour, carbon dioxide and methane), and aerosols (e.g., from dust storms, pollution, fires, sea spray or volcanic eruptions). Climate analysis studies are routinely carried out using a mix of data from diverse sources including historical climate data, current and past satellite instruments, field campaigns, and outputs from regional and global numerical models. A climatic data element is a measured parameter which helps to specify the climate of a specific location or region, such as precipitation, temperature, wind speed and humidity.
State of the UK Climate Report 2024 published on the 14 July 2025
Climate Change Committee Progress in adapting to climate change: 2025 report to Parliament
Exceptional rainfall and flooding in parts of Europe and north Africa in February
Published on the 13 March 2026
February 2026 saw exceptionally wet conditions in western and southern Europe and northern Africa, as reported in the latest Climate Bulletin by the Copernicus Climate Change Service Prolonged heavy rainfall triggered severe flooding and landslides in France,1 Spain, Portugal and Morocco,2 leading to loss of life and livelihoods alongside widespread damage.The extreme events of February 2026 highlight the growing impacts of climate change and the pressing need for global action. With global temperatures reaching 1.49°C above pre-industrial levels – the fifth-warmest February on record – Europe experienced stark temperature contrasts. Exceptional atmospheric rivers - narrow bands of very moist air – brought record rainfall and widespread flooding to western and southern Europe, while Arctic sea ice extent ranked as the third-lowest for the month. February 2026 was the fifth-warmest February on record. With a global average surface air temperature of 13.26°C, it was 1.49°C warmer than the estimated 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline. It was also the third-warmest February on record for the southern hemisphere.
Copernicus Climate Bulletin. Published on the 5 November 2025
When COP delegates adopted the Paris accord ten years ago, the app estimated that the global temperature was already 0.98°C above the pre-industrial average and would breach the 1.5°C threshold in 2045. Today, the same tool estimates that we have reached a global average of 1.25°C and will be at 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels in May 2029. This is five years earlier than when we published the first version of this article in 2023. To put it another way, in 2015 our projected deadline for reaching 1.5°C was 27 years away. Now, the application estimates that the threshold is only 4 years away – 23 years closer. This striking change suggests that global warming has accelerated quickly in recent years. It is important to note, however, that the application is based on a simple linear extrapolation, which cannot distinguish between acceleration due to increased greenhouse gases and natural climate variability.
Climate Analytics NCAR Climate Analysis Climate Models
Global Climate Highlights 2025