Monitoring the UK climate and forecasting its meteorological changes with analysis

UK Climate Forecasting and Analysis

Climate Change   UK Weather   North Atlantic   Hurricane Forecast   Reports & Analysis   Jet Stream   Flooding

Due to the rotation of our planet and the Coriolis effect in the Northern Hemisphere winds are blown to the right across the North Atlantic to Ireland the UK and Scandinavia so we have to look at the weather in North America and the direction of the Polar Front Jet Stream. The Coriolis effect increases in strength the nearer you get to the poles and is responsible for large cyclones or depressions. The weather in the North Atlantic is influenced by the 23.4° tilt in the axis of the Earth as the seasons are caused by variations in the angle of the sunlight hitting the Earth and are one of the major causes of Atlantic storms.

We will research these meteorological changes and analyse data which effect the UK. Why is lower-level water vapour band imagery important? The 7.3 µm “Lower-level water vapour” band is one of three water vapour bands on the ABI. It typically senses farthest down into the mid-troposphere in cloud-free regions, to around 500-750 hPa. It is used to track lower tropospheric winds, identify jet streaks, monitor severe weather potential, estimate lower-level moisture (for legacy vertical moisture profiles), identify regions where the potential for turbulence exists, highlight volcanic plumes that are rich in sulphur dioxide and track Lake effect snow bands.

The Atlantic Ocean is the second-largest of the world's oceans. With a total area of about 41,100,000 sq miles it covers approximately 20% of the Earth's surface and about 26% of its water surface area. The average depth of the Atlantic with its adjacent seas is 3,339 metres or 10,950 ft without them it is 3,926 metres or 12,880 ft. The greatest depth is the Milwaukee Deep at 27,500 ft in the Puerto Rico Trench. The Atlantic's width varies from 1,538 nautical miles between Brazil and Sierra Leone to over 3,450 nautical miles in the south. The principal feature of the bottom topography is a submarine mountain range called the Mid-Atlantic Ridge which is moving at 2.5 cm per year. It extends from Iceland in the north to approximately 58° South latitude reaching a maximum width of about 860 nautical miles. The Mid-Atlantic Ridge separates the Atlantic Ocean into two large troughs with depths from 12,000–18,000 ft. Transverse ridges running between the continents and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge divide the ocean floor into numerous basins. Some of the larger basins are the Blake, Guiana, North American, Cape Verde and Canaries basins in the North Atlantic. A great rift valley also extends along the ridge over most of its length. The depth of water at the apex of the ridge is less than 8,900 ft in most places while the bottom of the ridge is three times as deep.

The Atlantic Ocean is a major source of atmospheric moisture through evaporation and traps around 30% of the carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere by human activity. The waters circulate in a clockwise direction. The Gulf Stream carries more water than all the world’s rivers combined and has it moves north its salinity increases. The Sargasso Sea has above average salinity.

UK Climate Forecast  38 Union Street  Grantham  Lincolnshire NG31 6NZ   

Oceanic currents are driven

 by three main factors

1. The rise and fall of the tides. Tides create a current in the oceans which are strongest near the shore and in bays and estuaries along the coast. These are called "tidal currents." Tidal currents change in a very regular pattern and can be predicted for future dates. In some locations strong tidal currents can travel at speeds of 8 knots or more.

2. Wind. Winds drive currents that are at or near the ocean's surface. Near coastal areas winds tend to drive currents on a localised scale and can result in phenomena like coastal swells. On a more global scale in the open ocean winds drive currents that circulate water for thousands of miles throughout the oceans.

3. Thermohaline circulation. This is a process driven by density differences in water due to temperature and salinity variations in different parts of the ocean. Currents driven by thermohaline circulation occur at deep and shallow ocean levels and move much slower than tidal or surface currents. Currents affect the Earth's climate by driving warm water from the Equator and cold water from the poles around the Earth.

The Florida current can be considered the "official" beginning of the Gulf Stream System. It is defined as that section of the system which stretches from the Florida Straits up to Cape Hatteras. It is a key component of AMOC with low salinity. The current was discovered by Spanish explorer Juan Ponce de León in 1513. The Florida Current receives its water from two main sources, the Loop Current and the Antilles Current. The Loop current is the most significant and can be considered the upstream extension of the Gulf Stream. The Gulf Stream together with its northern extension the North Atlantic Drift is a warm and swift Atlantic ocean current that originates in the Gulf of Mexico and stretches to the tip of Florida and follows the eastern coastlines of USA up to Newfoundland before crossing the Atlantic Ocean to Ireland UK and Western Europe making the region about 5 C warmer.

North Atlantic Ocean - Thursday 19 June: A broad ridge centred along 27N continues to dominate the entire subtropical and tropical Atlantic waters. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds and seas to 7 ft are noted off northern Hispaniola and at the entrance of the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh easterly trades and seas of 5 to 8 ft dominate waters S of 20N, with moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas to the N. Fresh to strong winds are found off the coast of Dakar and near the Canary Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, ridge of high pressure will prevail along 29N. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate to locally rough seas are forecast south of the ridge through the forecast period. Locally strong winds will pulse just north of Hispaniola at night into late this week. Gentle to locally moderate winds will prevail elsewhere.

Tropical Waves: A tropical wave axis is in the E Atlantic along 29W from 04N to 15N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 06N to 09N between 26W and 37W. A tropical wave in the central Atlantic has an axis along 46W from 04N to 15W, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection associated with this wave extends from 06N to 08N between 38W and 51W. A tropical wave over the E Caribbean has been relocated based on observations and is now along 63W S of 17N into Venezuela. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 12N to 16N between 59W and 67W.

Monsoon Trough: The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the W coast of Africa near 13N17W and continues WSW to 07N34W. There are two segments of ITCZ, separated by an Atlantic tropical wave described in the above section. These segments are noted from 07N33W to 07N43W, then from 06N48W to 06N53W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, a cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N E of 21W.

Caribbean Sea: A broad subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic continues to support strong easterly trade winds over the central Caribbean Sea. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft. Fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of 7-9 ft are also ongoing in the Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are prevalent in the eastern and NW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is occurring over portions of the western Caribbean W of 77W in association with upper level divergence from Eastern Pacific Hurricane Erick. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge over the Atlantic waters north of the Caribbean and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas to 13 ft over the central Caribbean through the the remainder of the week and the weekend. Winds will pulse to near gale force off Colombia at night. Fresh to strong trades, and rough seas, are expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Thu. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail.

Gulf of America: Upper level divergence associated with Eastern Pacific Major Hurricane Erick, is supporting numerous moderate to scattered moderate convection across the Bay of Campeche. Recent wind derived satellite observations revealed 40 kt winds withing the strongest convection. Scattered moderate convection is depicted over the offshore waters, south of Tampa, FL in association to a surface trough over the Florida Peninsula. Overall, the winds in the Gulf are being dominated by subtropical ridging centred in the SW Atlantic, leading to gentle winds in the NE basin, and moderate to fresh SE winds in the southern and western basin. Seas in NE half of the basin are less than 3 ft, with 3 to 6 ft seas elsewhere outside of convection. For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will pulse each afternoon and evening over the next several days north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough develops and tracks westward across the region. Moderate to fresh southerly return flow and moderate seas are expected over the central and western Gulf through Sun night. Gentle to locally moderate SE winds and slight seas are forecast to prevail across the eastern half of the basin under a broad subtropical ridge.

Mid Atlantic Waters: A high pressure ridge will persist across the S waters today through Thu night. A stationary front over the N and central mid-Atlantic waters will retreat NE as a warm front today into tonight. A low pressure trough will strengthen inland and over the N and central mid-Atlantic coast today and tonight. A cold front will approach from the W and NW Thu, then move offshore Thu night into Fri. The cold front will stall as it moves SE over the central waters Fri, then dissipate by Fri night as high pressure builds over the mid-Atlantic and southern waters Sat and Sat night.

Courtesy of RUCOOL and University of Delaware ORB Labs

Latest Atlantic Weather

Courtesy of NOAA Star show the satellite image of the US Atlantic Coast and the Lower Level Water Vapour