Monitoring the UK climate and forecasting its meteorological changes with analysis

UK Climate Forecasting and Analysis

Climate Change   UK Weather   North Atlantic   Storms & Hurricanes   Reports & Analysis   Jet Stream   Flooding

Due to the rotation of our planet and the Coriolis effect in the Northern Hemisphere winds are blown to the right across the North Atlantic to Ireland the UK and Scandinavia so we have to look at the weather in North America and the direction of the Polar Front Jet Stream. The Coriolis effect increases in strength the nearer you get to the poles and is responsible for large cyclones or depressions. The weather in the North Atlantic is influenced by the 23.4° tilt in the axis of the Earth as the seasons are caused by variations in the angle of the sunlight hitting the Earth and are one of the major causes of Atlantic storms.

We will research these meteorological changes and analyse data which effect the UK. Why is lower-level water vapour band imagery important? The 7.3 µm “Lower-level water vapour” band is one of three water vapour bands on the ABI. It typically senses farthest down into the mid-troposphere in cloud-free regions, to around 500-750 hPa. It is used to track lower tropospheric winds, identify jet streaks, monitor severe weather potential, estimate lower-level moisture (for legacy vertical moisture profiles), identify regions where the potential for turbulence exists, highlight volcanic plumes that are rich in sulphur dioxide and track Lake effect snow bands.

The Atlantic Ocean is the second-largest of the world's oceans. With a total area of about 41,100,000 sq miles it covers approximately 20% of the Earth's surface and about 26% of its water surface area. The average depth of the Atlantic with its adjacent seas is 3,339 metres or 10,950 ft without them it is 3,926 metres or 12,880 ft. The greatest depth is the Milwaukee Deep at 27,500 ft in the Puerto Rico Trench. The Atlantic's width varies from 1,538 nautical miles between Brazil and Sierra Leone to over 3,450 nautical miles in the south. The principal feature of the bottom topography is a submarine mountain range called the Mid-Atlantic Ridge which is moving at 2.5 cm per year. It extends from Iceland in the north to approximately 58° South latitude reaching a maximum width of about 860 nautical miles. The Mid-Atlantic Ridge separates the Atlantic Ocean into two large troughs with depths from 12,000–18,000 ft. Transverse ridges running between the continents and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge divide the ocean floor into numerous basins. Some of the larger basins are the Blake, Guiana, North American, Cape Verde and Canaries basins in the North Atlantic. A great rift valley also extends along the ridge over most of its length. The depth of water at the apex of the ridge is less than 8,900 ft in most places while the bottom of the ridge is three times as deep.

The Atlantic Ocean is a major source of atmospheric moisture through evaporation and traps around 30% of the carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere by human activity. The waters circulate in a clockwise direction. The Gulf Stream carries more water than all the world’s rivers combined and has it moves north its salinity increases. The Sargasso Sea has above average salinity.

UK Climate Forecast  38 Union Street  Grantham  Lincolnshire NG31 6NZ   

Oceanic currents are driven

 by three main factors

1. The rise and fall of the tides. Tides create a current in the oceans which are strongest near the shore and in bays and estuaries along the coast. These are called "tidal currents." Tidal currents change in a very regular pattern and can be predicted for future dates. In some locations strong tidal currents can travel at speeds of 8 knots or more.

2. Wind. Winds drive currents that are at or near the ocean's surface. Near coastal areas winds tend to drive currents on a localised scale and can result in phenomena like coastal swells. On a more global scale in the open ocean winds drive currents that circulate water for thousands of miles throughout the oceans.

3. Thermohaline circulation. This is a process driven by density differences in water due to temperature and salinity variations in different parts of the ocean. Currents driven by thermohaline circulation occur at deep and shallow ocean levels and move much slower than tidal or surface currents. Currents affect the Earth's climate by driving warm water from the Equator and cold water from the poles around the Earth.

The Florida current can be considered the "official" beginning of the Gulf Stream System. It is defined as that section of the system which stretches from the Florida Straits up to Cape Hatteras. It is a key component of AMOC with low salinity. The current was discovered by Spanish explorer Juan Ponce de León in 1513. The Florida Current receives its water from two main sources, the Loop Current and the Antilles Current. The Loop current is the most significant and can be considered the upstream extension of the Gulf Stream. The Gulf Stream together with its northern extension the North Atlantic Drift is a warm and swift Atlantic ocean current that originates in the Gulf of Mexico and stretches to the tip of Florida and follows the eastern coastlines of USA up to Newfoundland before crossing the Atlantic Ocean to Ireland UK and Western Europe making the region about 5 C warmer.

North Atlantic Ocean 27 August : A weak stationary front extends from 31N75W to near Daytona Beach, Florida. A surface trough is found south of the front from 30N74W to near Fort Pierce, Florida. Scattered moderate convection is noted along these boundaries. Scattered moderate convection is also found from 23.5N to 26.5N between 56W and 62W in association with a surface trough. Aside from convection associated with a tropical wave, described in the section above, the remainder of the basin is generally dry, as a weak pressure gradient is inducing gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft. However, in the far eastern Atlantic, within 200 nm of the African coast, N of 18N, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas prevail. For the forecast, a slow moving cold front extending from 31N76W to N Florida will reach from 31N75W to north-central Florida on Wed, then will lift N of the area on Thu. Locally fresh winds and moderate seas are expected SE of the front through this evening. A ridge will dominate the remainder of the forecast region. Another weak front may move into the NW waters by the end of the week into the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will pulse N of Hispaniola through this evening. Meanwhile, northerly swell propagating across the W Atlantic will continue to subside tonight.

Tropical Waves : A eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 30W from 17N southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N to 09.5N between 28W and 34W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 58W from 20N southward, and moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 15N to 17.5N between 53W and 57W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 78.5W from western Jamaica to eastern Panama. It is moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 15N to 21N between 75W and 80W.

Caribbean Sea : For the forecast, a tropical wave located over the central Caribbean, with axis along 78W, is producing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas are also associated with the wave that is forecast to move from the central to the western Caribbean on Wed. Fresh to strong winds will then become confined to the S-central waters by midweek. Fresh E winds will pulse across the Gulf of Honduras through tonight. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near the Windward Passage through tonight. Northerly swell propagating across the tropical Atlantic waters will continue to subside tonight.

Gulf of America: A stationary front extends from just north of Tampa Bay to Galveston Bay. A surface trough resides south of the front from near Fort Myers, Florida, to near 27N93.5W. Betwen these two boundaries, isolated moderate convection is present. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is also occurring over the Bay of Campeche in association to two surface troughs over the area. For the forecast, the aforementioned front will move across N-central Florida and the NE Gulf through Wed, then lift N of the area by Thu. Gentle to moderate NE winds and slight to moderate seas are expected in the wake of the front. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail, except moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the S-central Gulf tonight, and again Wed night as a trough develops over the Yucatan Peninsula and moves westward at night. Slight to locally moderate seas are expected with those winds.

Mid Atlantic Waters: Low pressure will pass E of the northern waters early today will pulling a trailing cold front SEover the waters. The front will stall just S of the region tonight and Thu, lift N over the S waters Fri into Sat night. Another low will form along the front Sat night and track NE Sun into Sun night while pulling the front SE over the area. High pressure will build E off the Mid- Atlantic coast today and tonight, expand over the region Thu, then shift E of the waters Thu night. Another cold front will move slowly SE over the area Fri into Sat night while weakening.

New England Waters: A cold front will pass SE across the waters today as a developing low passes SE and E of the area. High pressure will build over the southern waters tonight into Thu, as a weak low pressure trough crosses the N waters. The high will move E of the area later Thu into Fri as a cold front approaches from the W. The front will move slowly offshore later Fri into Sat, then pass E of the area late Sat. Another weak low pressure trough will move SE over the region Sun and Sun night.

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Courtesy of RUCOOL and University of Delaware ORB Labs

NOAA Star Satellite images of the US Atlantic Coast and the Lower Level Water Vapour   

Monsoon Trough: A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16.5W, then curves southwestward to 06N36W. Scattered moderate convection is found south of the monsoon trough near the coast of Guinea and Sierra Leone.

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