This page will forecast the path and direction of any major storms and hurricanes in the North Atlantic up to the 30 November 2025 and their effect on the UK climate and weather.
A list of the names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry Karen Lorenzo
Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy
On May 22, 2025 — Forecasters within NOAA’s National Weather Service predict above normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The agency is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 6-10 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges. “NOAA and the National Weather Service are using the most advanced weather models and cutting-edge hurricane tracking systems to provide Americans with real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. “With these models and forecasting tools, we have never been more prepared for hurricane season.”
The Saharan Air Layer tracking product from CIMSS indicate another outbreak of African dust over the eastern Atlantic, mainly E of 30W. Saharan Air Layer activity usually ramps up in mid-June, peaks from late June to mid-August and begins to rapidly diminish after mid-August. On the 23 May 2025 : A plume of Saharan Dust continues to be very evident over the Eastern Atlantic on satellite imagery. The highest dust concentrations are E of 40W. It should be noted that Saharan Dust along with Wind Shear are the two main factors which limit the formation of Atlantic Hurricanes and it is of no coincidence that September is the most dangerous month for the formation of hurricanes.
Tropical Storm Fernand 28 August : At 03.00 hours the centre of Tropical Storm Fernand was located near latitude 40.0 North, longitude 45.5 West. It is about 600 miles SE of Cape Race Newfoundland. Fernand is moving toward the east-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a faster motion toward the east-northeast is expected through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight weakening is expected during the next day or so. Fernand is forecast to become post-tropical on Thursday and then dissipate by early Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the centre. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
The system is producing minimal shower activity at this time, with only some shallow- to mid-level topped convection and some isolated deeper cells in a band over the eastern semicircle. In fact, the cyclone lacks enough convection to be classified by the Dvorak technique. Unless significant shower and thunderstorm activity redevelops in the circulation, which seems unlikely due to cooler ocean waters, Fernand will become a post-tropical cyclone on Thursday. Fernand is accelerating east-northeastward with the motion now around 060/16 kt. The cyclone should continue to move faster in about the same direction, within the mid-latitude west-southwesterly flow ahead of a short-wave trough, until post-tropical transition.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa by this weekend to the south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favourable for some slow development of this system as it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, moving across the eastern into central Tropical Atlantic through the middle of next week. Formation chance through the next 7 days is low at 20 percent.
In our opinion this wave will develop into a strong tropical storm called Gabrielle.
Click Here to see the current videos on the hurricane season
