Monitoring the UK climate and forecasting its meteorological changes with analysis

UK Climate Forecasting and Analysis

Climate Change   UK Weather   North Atlantic   Hurricane Forecast   Reports & Analysis   Jet Stream   Flooding

This page will forecast the path and direction of any major storms and hurricanes in the North Atlantic up to the 30 November 2025 and their effect on the UK climate and weather.

A list of the names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Andrea   Barry   Chantal   Dexter   Erin   Fernand   Gabrielle   Humberto   Imelda   Jerry   Karen   Lorenzo

Melissa   Nestor   Olga   Pablo   Rebekah   Sebastien   Tanya   Van   Wendy

On May 22, 2025 — Forecasters within NOAA’s National Weather Service predict above normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The agency is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 6-10 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges. “NOAA and the National Weather Service are using the most advanced weather models and cutting-edge hurricane tracking systems to provide Americans with real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. “With these models and forecasting tools, we have never been more prepared for hurricane season.” The Saharan Air Layer tracking product from CIMSS indicate another outbreak of African dust over the eastern Atlantic, mainly E of 30W. Saharan Air Layer activity usually ramps up in mid-June, peaks from late June to mid-August and begins to rapidly diminish after mid-August. On the 23 May 2025 : A plume of Saharan Dust continues to be very evident over the Eastern Atlantic on satellite imagery. The highest dust concentrations are noted E of 40W.

It should be noted that Saharan Dust along with Wind Shear are the two main factors which limit the formation of Atlantic Hurricanes and it is of no coincidence that September is the most dangerous month for the formation of hurricanes.

Well! It’s “H” day the start of the hurricane season but it appears to be “the quiet before the storm” as the NOAA is not expecting any tropical cyclone activity during the next 7 days.

Click Here to see videos on the hurricane season

 

 

 

 

UK Climate Forecast  38 Union Street  Grantham  Lincolnshire NG31 6NZ